EXIT Realty CoannahMegan Strom
By Megan Strom | EXIT Realty Coannah | May 20, 2026
Today's National Average Mortgage Rates — May 20, 2026
| 30-Yr Fixed | 6.67% | ▼ -0.08% |
| 15-Yr Fixed | 6.22% | ▼ -0.03% |
| 30-Yr FHA | 6.22% | ▼ -0.03% |
| 30-Yr VA | 6.24% | ▼ -0.03% |
| 30-Yr Jumbo | 6.75% | ▼ -0.01% |
Source: Mortgage News Daily · National averages · Updated daily
If you've been watching mortgage rates and feeling like the ground keeps shifting beneath your feet, you're not imagining it. Let me break down everything that's happening — in plain English — so you can make confident, informed decisions.
After more than eight years at the helm of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell officially stepped down as Chair on May 15, 2026. His replacement, Kevin Warsh, was confirmed by the Senate on May 13 in the most divided confirmation vote in Fed history — 54 to 45.
Warsh is a former Fed governor and has publicly called for lower interest rates. But here's the truth: the Fed Chair alone does not control your mortgage rate. Interest rates are set by a 12-member committee, and Warsh gets just one vote. With inflation still running above the Fed's 2% target, any rate cuts are expected to be modest — analysts expect one to two possible cuts in the second half of 2026.
"The president never asked me to commit to interest rate cuts at any particular meeting over the period of my tenure at the Fed."
— Kevin Warsh, Senate Confirmation Hearing, April 2026
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran. The conflict created a direct — and painful — chain reaction in the housing market.
The Rate Ripple Effect
| 1 | Oil supplies tightened globally, driving energy prices sharply higher |
| 2 | Inflation expectations jumped, making bond investors nervous about returns |
| 3 | The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from ~3.96% before the war to 4.59% today |
| 4 | Mortgage rates followed upward, erasing early 2026 progress when rates had briefly dipped below 6% |
The good news? Oil prices have begun to moderate. Today's bond market is showing positive movement — MBS prices are stronger this morning, which tends to pull mortgage rates downward. There is genuine reason for cautious optimism heading into summer.
Phoenix and the surrounding metro area have felt the weight of this uncertainty. Home price growth nationally was just 0.7% over the past year — the weakest since 2011. For buyers, that means negotiating leverage that simply didn't exist two or three years ago.
For sellers, pricing strategy, condition, and presentation matter more than ever. Sellers who prepare their homes well and work with an experienced agent are still closing deals — and closing them well.
01 — You're buying the home, not the rate.
Rates move. The home you buy at the right price today appreciates over time — and when rates drop, you can refinance. Marry the home, date the rate.
02 — Competition has cooled significantly.
Fewer buyers means you're less likely to end up in a bidding war, overpaying, or waiving inspections. That's a healthier buying environment.
03 — Arizona remains a destination market.
Phoenix continues to attract employers, transplants, and long-term investment. Patient buyers who hold the long view have historically been rewarded.
04 — Rate relief may be on the horizon.
As the geopolitical situation evolves and inflation improves, the Fed is expected to begin easing. Even modest cuts from today's levels meaningfully improve affordability.
Whether you're buying, selling, or simply trying to make sense of this market — let's talk. I'll walk you through your options honestly, with no pressure.
📞 Call (253) 861-6014Serving Phoenix Metro & surrounding Arizona communities
Market data sourced from Mortgage News Daily, Bankrate, NAR, and Federal Reserve Board. Rates current as of May 20, 2026 and change daily. EXIT Realty Coannah is an equal opportunity housing provider.
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